Recent research suggests that it is inevitable that the world will cross the 1.5°C limit within the 2030s. To stop global mean temperature increase and to return to 1.5°C, first net-zero and eventually net-negative emissions are necessary. Net-zero emissions require first and foremost a rapid reduction of fossil fuel use. Residual demands of liquid and gaseous fuels that may remain in the chemical industry, or in long-distance shipping and aviation can be decarbonized via synthetic fuels or biofuels. If long-lived materials such as plastics are made from biogenic or carbon-neutral synthetic fuels instead of fossil oil, these materials would be carbon-negative. Stringent emission reductions need to be complemented with carbon dioxide removal (CDR) from the atmosphere to balance residual emissions for net-zero and to achieve net-negative emissions. System modelling helps us gain insights into the complex interactions between the different technologies including competitions and synergies.
In the Strefler group, we work with the detailed-process integrated assessment model (IAM) REMIND. REMIND is one of the key IAMs that contributes scenarios to the Assessment Reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). It is an open-source energy-economy general equilibrium model linking a macro-economic growth model with a bottom-up engineering-based energy system model. It covers twelve world regions, differentiates various energy carriers and technologies and represents the dynamics of economic growth and international trade. The aim of our modelling is to analyse carbon capture and utilization (CCU) and CDR technologies, considering their risks and side-effects as well as costs, competition with other technologies, and carbon removal potentials. The results can inform technology developers of CCU technologies understand the potential role of their technology for climate change mitigation and most promising areas of development, as well as policy makers and the society regarding the implications of different transformation pathways.
