The war in Ukraine has led to limited access to natural gas in Europe. This could be our chance to accelerate the green transition and scale up the amount of renewable energy sources across the continent.

Systems modeling of energy systems is an effective tool for gaining concrete knowledge about potential strategies that can be used to reduce CO₂ emissions, as well as how different technologies can be combined – e.g. how much renewable energy is needed in order for us to reach the goals of the Paris Agreement.

Together with my colleagues, I have used a high-resolution model of the entire European energy system to calculate the long-term impact of a stoppage of Russian gas on the decarbonisation of the European energy system.

And the scenarios are clear:

We must choose between investing in the immediate installation of large amounts of wind and solar energy or falling back on fossil energy sources, including coal. The first scenario corresponds well with a very ambitious climate strategy, and it will very quickly alleviate Europe's dependence on imported gas. However, the second scenario makes it difficult to comply with the Paris Agreement at all.

Our model clearly shows that the most cost-effective solution is to act now. And the models show that the cost-effective cornerstone of a climate-neutral energy system is solar energy and on- and offshore wind.

But that requires a very ambitious climate policy and urgent action.

Throughout Europe, we must start installing a lot of solar and wind and at the same time invest heavily in Power-to-X technologies and implement a massive replacement of gas boilers with heat pumps. It will also be necessary to develop technologies that can capture CO₂ from the atmosphere. Without these, it will be almost impossible to meet the challenge posed by the Paris Agreement and keep us within the 1.5 degrees Celsius that the agreement proposes.

Therefore, the decision for policymakers should not be difficult; we must stick to a very ambitious climate strategy, not only in Denmark, but throughout Europe, and the escalation of renewable energy must happen quickly, if we are not to return to fossil energy sources such as coal and oil.

However, initiating such a rapid green transition is not without challenges. The huge amounts of wind and solar energy that need to be installed require a strengthening of the existing European energy grid, so there is no more time to hesitate.

Analysis published in Joule

The opinion piece above is based on the paper Long-term implications of reduced gas imports on the decarbonization of the European energy system, which was published in the recognised scientific publication Joule on 20 July 2022. 

Please find the original piece in Klimamonitor (in Danish) here.